I think Ed Kerschner of Paine Webber is the best strategist on the street. He has been bullish on the market and has been right. He is still bullish for the longer term, especially regarding tech stocks.
However, he did a very nice piece this week on the internet stocks. According to Kerschner, history suggests many of these companies will not survive.
HIGHLIGHTS:
* Of the 485 auto companies that entered the business bewtween 1900 and 1908, 262 were gone by the latter date. Only a few survived for long.
* PC stocks boomed in 1982-83, but by February 1984 a group of 24 leading PC stocks were, on average, 50% below their 52 week high. Morever, most of the leaders exited the business in a few years.
* Biotech stocks soared in 1991, but sank in 1992. Of 35 leading biotech companies at year-end 1991, only 10 have a higher price now than at the end of 1991.
LESSONS:
* Beware of paying too much for even the best company.
* Even an "industry leader" may not survive for long.
* Beware of mediocre companies that come to market simply because there is a demand for them.
Survivability, not valuation, is the key issue for many Internet stocks. |
