I'd be interested to hear whether people think this is consolidation in preparation for a healthy summer rally, or the bull market running out of steam.
Take this with a big salt lick...
IMO, we are headed for a correction, but not a slam-the-stock-market-down correction, rather a painful, kind of slow, move down for maybe 8 days. There may be a revival in the middle of it which will muddle the picture, but say it goes 7%. Then, just like it never happened, the market will take off towards that ever-present 10,000 goal. Once investors get scared again by the lofty heights, we will drag along through August, September and then I think all hell is going to break loose this October. Why, because history tells us it's always October. I think this October will be the end of the current bull market cycle, but I don't think we will have a panic drop, rather a two to four year consolidation where we might actually see 7,500. Then it's off to the races again until 2006, when the first year of baby boomers turn 60 (maybe a year before) and they start dumping all that money from those IRA accounts...
It is absolutely crucial that we have a small bear market and another large bull market before 2006 to make sure the boomers have a happy golf-resort vacation retirement lifestyle because the next generation can't handle the bill otherwise. Without a slowdown, we'd be talking about a 16 year bull market, and it just ain't possible...at least it's never been done before.
So, before the end of May, you'd better be loaded up with stocks -- and I don't mean those d*gshit stocks that get flaunted around SI, I mean core stuff where you can make money through a bear market; CPQ, INTC, DELL, MSFT, CSCO, DIS, NKE, GPS, etc. Franchises, monopolies, and sure things...not "possibly" good stocks like ASND. And before October, you have a huge decision to make.
"Should I stay or should I go now,
if I stay there will be trouble,
and if I go there will be trouble..."
-The Clash
Short term, lock and load. Long term, watch your back. That, my friends, is a diatribe showing that a person can have one too many Sierra-Nevada's...and still type.
I bet I really helped you out for Monday, huh? |
