Tom,
<< To All: China is doing a splendid job.>>
I would laud your post. I agree that Zhu is the man of the hour. Zhu is worth studying closely given his uncharacteristic penchant for telling it like it is and his impatience with bureaucratize and circumspect confucianisms. These traits, of course, somewhat endear him to those of us in the West. Zhu's description reads like that of an X-style CEO who has just turned around a major corporation and is known for hard punching, decisive action. Interesting that Zhu hails from the same hometown as Mao. It may be about the only thing they have in common however.
It seems to me that never before has China had a leadership so ready to shed the introspection that has been a hallmark of Chinese world affairs since history began. It seems a "no brainer" to me that Zhu expects China's resolve to accept an economic leadership role (mostly through holding the line on their currency) will escort them to a seat in the World Trade Organization. Zhu is no stranger to the benefits of open markets and borderless investing. His role in the development of Pudong in Shanghai when he was the city's mayor was key and yielded huge benefits to the city's people. Their average income was almost three times the national average at last count. As a standing member of the central committee his role in salvaging the joint venture between American Motors and China (Beijiing Jeep) earned the respect of capitalist all over the world.
I have often wondered if Deng had visions of a reawakened and globally responsible China long ago. Tiananmen Square and the predecessor demonstrations in 1987 may have slowed things considerably. Hu Yaobang lost his party job in 1987 and Zhao Ziyang lost his in 1989 after Tianamen. Deng, I believe, had his hand forced by political realities of those times. We can only hope a similar development doesn't interfere with Zhu's goals. But those forces still most certainly exist in China and to not be wary of that is foolhardy in my opinion. Further, for all his apparent capabilities, the challenges faced by Zhu are huge. Successfully tackling the $250 billion in bad bank debt and the continued dismantling of antiquated state enterprises, while holding the line on devaluation in the face of the slowing of market share growth will be a hat trick if ever there was one. But the prize is equally huge. If successful Zhu will usher China into position as the region's leading economic influence supplanting Japan. Except for the most virulent ideologist this may whet the appetite of the old guard enough to keep them at bay as well as the ever less patient student factions. But the inevitable rise of unemployment may threaten the peace and once again preempt the intentions of a reform minded leader. Zhu will need lots of elbow room A man of his style usually does. I hope he gets it.
Best,
Stitch
It will be interesting to watch Hong Kong's elections, the first "free" elections held on Chinese soil since 1949 (which is the same year Zhu joined the party). It will also be interesting to watch the visit Clinton will make to China in June.
I for one would like to see changes in |
