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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 133.18

-0.1%

Nov 28 12:59 PM EST

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To: JRI who wrote (42567)	5/16/1998 12:26:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) of 176387

John, I've noticed three common threads in what the current crop of bears are saying. So, in the interests of bandwidth economy I thought I'd do the entire thread a favor by summarizing the most common bear arguments. They are now pretty much conceding that this quarter will be great, but clouds loom over distant quarters. Basically, the arguments are: Thread #1: 1. ASP will continue to fall and gross margins will be squeezed; 2. Demand will slacken; 3. Asian economies will continue to implode; Thread #2: 1. The future of hardware is in the sub-zeros; 2. Dell does not sell sub-zeros; 3. Computers are commodities; Thread #3 1. The stock market is overvalued; 2. Dell is even more over-valued than the market; 3. Dell can't maintain 40% revenue growth. I have noted that all of these arguments are based on subjective judgements, and as data become available (such as IDC's estimate for world-wide demand) the bear time-frame is pushed out a quarter or two, thus avoiding the inevitable colission with quantifiable data. TTFN, CTC

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