Tom,
Thank you for such a thought provoking commentary.
<<I was thinking only yesterday about the fact that the bulk of the unemployment is yet to come.>>
I read recently that China has dismantled slightly over half of the state enterprises, with a high unemployment rate as a result of course. The rest will only add to the problem. Unfortunately China has not instituted much in the way of retraining programs which I suspect are high on Mr. Zhu's list.
<<Central to that plan would be the consolidation of the strength they feel is in the coastal industrial region.>>
A review of the history of the South China coast makes it all the more fascinating to realize just how important this region is to China's future and why, after hundreds of years of Mandarin disdain, it is regarded by the current "Mandarins" as the jewel in the crown. It was to this area the merchant class who suffered so greatly under the mandarins escaped to. It is from here that, from Canton to Shanghai, the enormous off shore Chinese migration was launched to the effect of the accumulation of enormous wealth and power. That this region now represents the best of the economic hopes of China is not at all surprising. It is embodied in the region's history since long before the Western world was little more then a few barbaric tribes fueding with each other and long before Socratic thought was, well,..thought.
<<The Eastern Coastal Region should also function as a shoving-off point, a financial fulcrum for lifting the remainder of the country.>>
If you let your eyes rest on Seoul on a map, then guide them almost due West to a small peninsula jutting down from the China mainland, you will see a place called Dalien. Here a huge port has been built as has tremendous industrial infrastructure. It will be a showcase city, with parks, schools, hospitals, and a university. It will feature the latest in telecommunications, power distribution, automation for the port, and an airport. The result so far is very impressive and the plans are aggressive. Dalien will be the Eastern jewel in China's modernization.
<<Additional insight also to why, after a number of years in the making, Singapore decided only recently they will be happy to host the U.S. Navy's Seventh Fleet.>>
Perhaps so, but I think Singapore has been also prompted by the extreme rise in piracy incidents (cases thus far in 1998 are almost equal to all of last year in the South China Seas) as well as regional political instability.
BTW, speaking of Singapore it was reported that Lee Kuan Yew, commenting on Zhu, said "he is not a man you like or dislike, he is a man you respect or do not respect, I for one respect him". An interesting comment from another crafty old Chinaman.
Best,
Stitch |
