TOI (5/17/98)
Cowboy Bill and Sant Vajpayee...
Did they jointly author the script for the N-test drama? That's the hot
theory doing the rounds, says Kumar Ketkar
Yes, Uncle Sam was all righteous and indignant about ''a great
civilisation'' like India testing nuclear devices. And yes, the
sanctions imposed by the US are stringent all right. Despite
this, there's a growing feeling in the corridors of New Delhi that
there was far more to the blasts than met the eye. Specifically:
the whole exercise was executed by the BJP in connivance with
US authorities.
While no concrete evidence for this hypothesis is yet available,
political sociologists and strategy planners must pay attention to
the circumstantial evidence. When Yashwant Sinha visited the
US last month, he was bluntly told by the US Trade
Representative Charlene Barshefsky that the US would no
longer tolerate India's excuse of balance of payments for
restricting American imports. Barshefsky told the finance
minister that the barriers erected under the old GATT rules
were a severe impediment to US manufacturers trying to sell
their products in India. And with that began the arm-twisting of
India which was to lead to the BJP government's bending
backwards to please the US.
The tenuous coalition led by the BJP meant the party was on
shaky grounds. If by some political accident, elections were
forced on the country again, it would be without an issue to face
the electorate. That's when it reportedly thought of the bomb --
on the correct reasoning that there could be no better way to
capture the popular imagination and raise its support base.
There was, however, a snag: if India conducted nuclear tests, it
would have to face the music from other countries, particularly
the US which would be forced by law to impose sanctions.
To convert a tricky situation into an advantage, an elaborate
charade was worked out -- a charade which would suit both the
BJP and Bill Clinton and raise their rather low stock in their
respective countries.
The charade began with Defence Minister George Fernandes's
statements about China and not Pakistan being India's main
enemy. (These weren't off-the-cuff remarks: they were
reasoned out and the Americans knew about them.) Under the
pretext of danger from China, India carried out its nuclear tests
-- which, in turn, invited the US sanctions. The BJP
government's logic was that in the storm of indignation and
nationalistic jingoism brought on by the sanctions, signing the
CTBT would be forgiven. After all, hadn't France and China
done precisely the same thing in the past?
Next step: once the CTBT was signed and India played
America's China card, it would be rather easy for the US to
look at India's economic needs.
How would the drama benefit Clinton? In two ways. First, if
India was arm-twisted into giving up the gradual rapprochement
it had achieved with China over the years, the US would achieve
its aim of isolating the country which, by virtue of being
communist and an emerging superpower, was a big threat to it.
Like Henry Kissinger's surprise visit to China in 1971 changed
the power balance in Asia, Clinton emissary Bill Richardson's
visit to India was probably a preamble to Clinton's forthcoming
visit to the subcontinent to change the equations all over again.
The globocop who wants to go down in history as the man who
brought peace to the Middle East and Ireland wanted to play the
history-maker's role in South Asia too.
The other offshoot of the drama that would add a feather to
Clinton's cap was, of course, getting India to sign the CTBT.
The fact that all these events were pre-meditated becomes
evident by the US response to the blasts. How, the President
wondered aloud, could a great civilisation -- not to mention a
country he and his wife loved so much -- stoop to these depths?
The clear implication was: be a good boy now, sign the CTBT
and everything will be sorted out. Such a warm and touching
response has never been extended by the US to any other Third
World country with nuclear aspirations.
So, before we get start patting ourselves on the back for our
great national courage, let's find out whether the entire plot
was worked out in advance to bail out two beleaguered
governments. |
