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Biotech / Medical : Nortran Pharmaceutical -NRT.V

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To: Mr. Forthright who wrote (741)5/16/1998 11:49:00 PM
From: SOROS  Read Replies (2) of 1185
 
Risky . . . long-term . . . early stage . . . milestone payments . . . full of failures . . . nothing you said here is untrue. What you HAVE done, however, is imply that Nortran was not following the set protocol for a small biotech, and try to put doubts about the honesty of the company in the minds of investors here. For that, there is usually another motive. Deny what you will. Human nature always holds true.

Now, I'll tell you that Nortran is following the REQUIRED course of action in order to get their drugs to market. Somehow this stock attracted an abundance of traders, IMO. Other companies that have followed this course have seen their stocks go steadily up or sky-rocket and return a little or a lot, but the trend is always up! Early, milestone payments, etc. etc. etc -- if you want to invest in biotech for a homerun, Nortran is as good a bet as it gets, IMO.

Biotech companies are valued at about 100 million with ONE drug at Phase I, 275 million with ONE drug at Phase II. Nortran is moving to Phase II within 1-2 MONTHS for one of its drugs. Another of its drugs will probably enter Phase I this year, as well. LaRoche will monitor the studies, and if they prove safe and useful (a very good bet indeed because they have proven so far), you can bet the payments and licensing will take place, and they will not let Nortran's other drugs and applications go without notice or first jump at them -- hence, more money and a wider licensing deal. Nortran's market cap is probably about $75 million now. If they go Phase II, Phase I, and combine this with a successful trial under LaRoche, I would expect the current stock price to go up about 3 TIMES with Phase II, 4 TIMES with addition of Phase I, and if confirmation from LaRoche is intermingled between these two events, then I expect to make 10 TIMES my current investment from this level within 1-1 1/2 years. But, hey, if a bet this good doesn't interest you, then don't buy biotechs -- but don't spend time trashing them if you are "just another guy". If you have accusations to make against the company -- put-up or shut-up. And if you still insist you have no other motives in these innuendos you keep throwing around, then yes, it is about whether you are an a.....e.

I remain,

SOROS

ps and if all goes well, I expect to add several million within your 4-6 years time frame
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