Highlights from the Big Pharma Report placed on AOL's Motley Fool PFE Board:
BigKNY3
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Big Pharma Report- 5/17/98
-Big Pharma (+0.6%) tracked the Dow (+0.5% for the week)
-AHP (+8.0%), AMG (+4.3%) and SGP (+4.3%) were the weekly leaders, While PFE (-6.0%), SBH (-2.8%) and PNU (-1.6%) were the laggards.
-SGP (+10.3%) is the clear May leader, while PFE (-6.0%) retreats from its highs.
-YTD PFE (+40.1%) now trails WLA (+51.5%) and SGP (+42.6%). These "Big Three" have increased 46.1% YTD as compared to a 12% gain for "The Bottom 10).
Special Report- Current PFE Performance and Predictions
On April 21, 1998, one day after reporting the first full week Viagra Rxs of 36,000, PFE reached 121.75 before settling to close at 116 1/8. Volume for that day was 13.7 million, a high for 1998. Since this all-time high, PFE has declined 14.2% to Friday's close of 104.44.
Why the decline in the face of great news and a steady general market? Here is a special Big Pharma Report:
Profit-taking at Highs- As described by The Peabody Model, profit-taking at PFE highs is basically a given. Since 1990, there have been 27 intermediate PFE highs (Peabody Peaks) that have resulted in an average decline of 14.7% to intermediate PFE lows (Peabody Valleys).
Viagra Specification- Viagra has been on the market for just over a month. During this period, it has generated more Rxs than any other new product in pharmaceutical history. In fact, according to an audit by a market research firm Scott-Levin, Viagra was the 13th most frequently prescribed pharmaceutical in April surpassing Norvasc and Lipitor. Zithromax was #1.
Top 20 Brand-Name Pharmaceuticals Dispensed in April 1998
Brand Company New Prescriptions
1 Zithromax/Z-Pak PFE 1,610,000
2 Augmentin SKB 1,250,000
3 Claritin SGP 1,166,000
4 Premarin Tabs AHP 1,031,000
5 Synthrorid Knoll 933,000
6 Biaxin/Susp ABT 909,000
7 Cipro Bayer 909,000
8 Prozac LLY 873,000
9 Prilosec Astra Merck 848,000
10 Zoloft PFE 710,000
11 Paxil SKB 682,000
12 Amoxil SKB 592,000
13 Viagra PFE 570,000
14 Norvasc PFE 565,000
15 Lipitor WLA/PFE 562,000
16 Cefzil BMY 534,000
17 Lanoxin GLX 522,000
18 Ultram JNJ 516,000
19 Ambien MTC 495,000
20 Claritin-D-12 Hr SGP 471,000
New Rxs Refill Rxs Total Rxs
Viagra-5/01/98 269,842 16,429 286,271
Viagra- 4/24/98 207,868 7,508 215,376
Viagra- 4/17/98 113,134 2,109 115,243
Viagra- 4/10/98 36,263 429 36,692
Viagra- 4/03/98 546 0 546
Total 627,653 26,275 654,128
Viagra Unknowns- With this current unbelievable specification, what is the problem?
Simple, Viagra seems unbelievable to many analysts and even physicians. How can a product be effective and safe in such a complex problem such as ED? They reason ...the first month specification must be an illusion...just trial usage by men who have previously injected themselves and placed pellets down their urethras. And besides...remember Redux.. anything that is hyped and effective may be off the market in a few months.
Here are some examples of these ramblings and concerns that effected PFE last week:
Following the publication of the NEJM article and editorial, several analysts seemed surprised that PFE will not be effective for all ED patients. One major analyst last week even questioned whether Viagra will be effective in occasional ED since it has only been studied in persistent ED.
Some physicians are seeking to "Redux" Viagra and make media headlines..
Curiously, Viagra's current efficacy and adverse reaction profile ...one month post-launch...are exactly as published in the FDA approved labeling.
The Impact of Viagra- Analysts remain slow to revise their 1998 Viagra forecasts and the corresponding effect on PFE. Just too early to commit..
Analysts' estimates of Viagra 1998 sales average only $500 million. At the current specification rate, it is estimated that Viagra is selling at a rate of $80 million per month. Accordingly, a very conservative 1998 Viagra sales forecast is $720 million.
Predictions
Expect Viagra specification to continue to grow until a leveling off in the summer. Monday's report should be at the 300 M + level.The greatest impact of Viagra on PFE will occur with a strong refill reports (reported every Monday) and actual sales data (due July 17th).
However, you can expect continuing reports about Viagra's side effect profile of headaches, flushing, and abnormal vision (3% of total patients). Given the nature of ED, I believe that these side effects will have zero effect on Viagra's specification. Click here to read an insightful article on this subject published in the LA Times. latimes.com
Based on current specification trends and assuming no significant future significant adverse reactions, Viagra will be the most successful first year launch in pharmaceutical history. Viagra may actually break $1 billion for 9 month sales in 1998. Moreover, I believe it will the #1 pharmaceutical product with sales over $3.5 billion by the year 2000. This is substantially higher than current analysts' forecasts. The resulting incremental profit will propel PFE's R&D and future licensing agreements.
It may take weeks or months before analysts and "Da Street" agree with the above statements. When this occurs, PFE will have a strong movement upward. As mentioned earlier, I have revised my 1998 PFE high to 150. |
