Stitch,
"unwarranted panic in the Asian markets and unwarranted optimism in the US markets"
"I look around and see only bad news in Asia"
You ask me why I would make the statement I did, but it seems to me you have answered your own question? I might add,
"we have seen very few warnings about the US equities market"
Indications have been that US companies are entering a weak period and that, because of currency devaluations, Asian companies will be far more competitive in International commerce. In spite of this, the US markets continue to rise and Asian markets continue to fall. The markets are being influenced by the media and a herd mentality.
From a recent article I read, "If you are buying stock in the US market, you are wagering that someone will pay more for that stock than you did." If I were to make that wager, I'd do it in Asia - for that matter I sold US holdings and bought Asia shortly after the 'crisis' started.
Another topic. The unemployment in China. The number given is 10.2M unemployed. Out of 1.2 Billion people. About 0.85% of them to be unemployed workers. Even with the current problems in HK, the unemployment is less than 3%. Numerous growth companies in China are having problems finding additional labor. The problem doesn't appear to be the number, but the location of the unemployed. China badly needs infrastructure improvements to industrialize the interior. Will we see rioting over unemployment? Probably. Get 10 people together to protest in Bejing and our media will make it look like a national uprising. Throw some tear gas at them and we'll have a revolution.
I can't believe what's happening in Indonesia. Some thugs, arsonists, and looters go beserk in Jakarta and a couple of other areas and it's interpreted that the entire country is a war zone. I'll wager that the average citizen outside Jakarta is coming home from work astounded about what's happening there. Anyone remember Watts?
JMHO,
Ron
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