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Technology Stocks : Voice-on-the-net (VON), VoIP, Internet (IP) Telephony
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To: Atin who wrote ()5/17/1998 11:39:00 AM
From: Jeff Pulver  Read Replies (1) of 3178
 
Pulver Points(tm) on the Internet Telephony Industry
from: ( pulver.com )

May 18, 1998

I've decided to chisel some of my current observations about the trends in the Internet Telephony space in digital stone since I hate
being misquoted by the press (or a least quoted out of context).

1. It's a done deal. Future Public Networks will be IP based. Until recently we all have been putting Data over Voice Networks.
Now we will be putting Voice over Data Networks.

2. Not a 1998 Threat to Service Revenue. Despite the Hype propagated by the media and mis-informed market analysts - in the
current US$ 70 Billion Dollar Global Minutes Marketplace - 1998 Revenue for IP Telephony Minutes will be no more than US$ 30
million.

3. Many PSTN/IP Gateway Vendors will start to support more than one operating system - most likely NT and a favorite flavor of
Unix.

4. 1999 May be the year of Gateway Interoperability. As of May, 1998 there are very few (if any) PSTN/IP Gateways which
interoperate with PSTN/IP Gateways of Multiple Vendors. This issue will have a negative effect in the build out of 1998 public IP
Telephony based Networks. This will have NO effect on trails or build out of private networks where it is customary to single
source a vendor. (But imagine if two Carriers got together and there was close to zero interoperability between their switches?
This PROBLEM needs to be addressed and corrected by the Industry by early 1999.)

5. Internet Telephony Technologies will become part of embedded systems of future IP devices. Look for many more Hybrid IP
Telephony Appliances in 1999.

6. By the year 2000, look for IP to be a supported protocol on the 5ES switches of Lucent, Nortel and Ericsson.

7. H.323 will not be the ONLY protocol used by most carriers and service providers when they roll out their Internet Telephony
Services. H.323 interoperability has been proven and implemented with PC to PC Internet Telephony Client Software. Same can
be said for PC to Phone services. But don't count on Carriers and Service providers blindly accepting H.323 as the sole protocol to
run on their Phone to Phone networks.

8. In 1998 Internet Telephony is all about cheap minutes. This is not hype but fact. The Internet "Applications" will start to show up
in late 1998 and early 1999 - but it is the excitement of cheap minutes that has gotten the attention of the Global US$ 800 Billion
dollar telecommunications industry. But it will be because of Internet Telephony Applications that the industry will grow to US$1.6
Trillion over the next few years.

9. The Education of NextGen Telcos and PSTN/IP Gateway vendors has begun. Until recently there was no knowledge of the
legacy IN environment demonstrated by many of the NextGen Telco Operators. During 1998 I have noticed a strong demand of
experienced Telecom operators who have been joining the ranks of NextGen Telcos. Equally strong demand for engineers with
working knowledge legacy telephony equipment/environment. The growing Internet Telephony Industry could be the last boon for
IN Engineers.

10. Run Internet Call Center applications on well managed Corporate IntraNets and ExtraNets. Forget about using the Internet for
customer Care unless you really don't care much about caring for your customers.

11. The Regulation of Internet Telephony will accelerate the movement of minutes off of the Public Switched Telephone Network
and onto Virtual Private Networks.

Jeff Pulver
President/CEO
pulver.com

Feedback/Comments? Please mail: points@pulver.com.

(c) 1998 pulver.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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