James, I think they mentioned 4,000 instruments 5 months ago. They may be over 6,000 now for all we know.
I don't know if Igen would terminate the license, but if they got upfront payments from Abbott that are bigger than Roche's royalties (remember, BM gave Igen 2.5 million/quarter for 5 years), then Abbott would be up and running within a couple of years, perhaps within 1 year.. Roche has no choice but to come clean. Say Abbott gave Igen $50 million over 2 years. Since Igen already seems to have moved past Roche's instruments in capability, this could be used be Abbott to speed things up, and get approval within a year. Since Igen already has a number of the tests approved on a shared basis with Roche, Abbott would simply run through any additional tests they needed, adapting them from their current tests. Since BM paved the way for the first tests, approval would follow on these tests even faster than they did the first time. But I think things will be worked out.
My reference to Igen walking was meant to apply to getting a good POC deal, I was not referring to Roche.
Yes BM has been bought by Roche, but many BM people are still in control. These people may have to be moved to clean up the place.
If Igen does get an aggressive partner for POC, I think it will push Roche to settle because they will not get POC as things stand. There is no way Roche would (in their right mind) give up POC to a competitor when they already have over 30 tests ready to go, and will have 60 tests by the time POC is ready to go. You know, if HP is the one who makes the first deal, with this Roche situation as it is, they could ask for a delay in when a second POC license would take effect, for say 1 year after they introduce their instrument, in exchange for an additional large upfront payment. From HP reputation, they would probably use that time to dominate the POC market. From the gigantic amount they put into I-stat (over 60 million), I would not be surprised to see a large amount for Igen's better technology with more potential, in exchange for a limited period of exclusivity.
This blocking and dodging by Roche can go on only so long. It will hurt their reputation, they will lose out on some of the best technology in the future (even if they are the high bidder, people would wonder if they will pay what they promise), they may get a big fine, and they could lose POC and electsys.
With electsys, Roche looks like it can be as big as Abbott. Abbott knows this. If Igen decides it can't work with Roche, and Abbott offers to pay more, pays upfront payments, plus makes up for lost income from Roche, I could see Abbott taking it away from Roche.
And abbott would have eliminated the single biggest danger to their dominate position in immunassays.
I am not advocating this, I am pointing out Igen has a lot of options. Igen is not dependent on Roche. One of these days, people will begin to realize this.
James, the research area is not dependent on Roche nor BM. It is Igen's area. They are already selling here. I think this is the area of biggest potential by far, but analysts don't seem to have caught on to that.
One thing not mentioned was how Perkin Elmer acquistion is working out. |
