To:thread re:entry price & time:
MSFT hasn't been cheap since 1987. I've been watching it since I started investing 3 years ago, watching it go up and up and up, but not buying because the PE scared me off. Now, I think I may get a chance to finally buy. Opinions, please, on where it may bottom, and when.
1. Any chance it will hit the 1997 resistance level at 66? What's the worst-case stock price?
2. Buy now? Or when the case goes to court? Wait for a break-up, and buy whatever piece Bill holds onto?
3. Win 98 will not be as successfull as Win 95. I've read several reviews, and I haven't found anything that I can't already do (that I care about) with Win 95 plus a browser. Will this affect the stock price, or is it already priced in?
4. I've followed drug companies that got in trouble with government regulators. Once you get a reputation as a company that's hard to get along with, they interpret every rule in the harshest possible way. In a complex system, with many interacting parts, the attitude of the people interpreting the rules is crucial. Showing up late for meetings, publicly blasting the people you're negotiating with, telling them they're too stupid to understand your products (especially if it's true), is a recipe for disaster. Bill must grovel (a new skill for him), or the feds will keep gunning for him.
5. This thread, like many, reacts with anger/dark discussions of conspiracy theories/ridicule/disbelief/hyperbole when opposing views are expressed. Hopefully, you'll get back to facts and logic soon.
6. I see Bateman infests this thread too. Oh, well, easy enough to click through.
7. The only final solution for the feds is to leave them alone, or break them up into two or more parts. All else is temporizing. Even if you got MSFT to distribute a competitor's browser, how would you keep them from deliberately making the Netscape browser work poorly with Win 98? How could you prove it if they did? MSFT will always know software better than the DOJ. But, the DOJ will probably temporise for an extended period, hoping to make a less drastic solution work. After the beaurocrats get tired of the geeks running circles around them, they'll impose some arbitrary, draconian, and effective solution. The only way to have a competitive market for browsers (and web portals, which is where the real money will be) is to keep whoever has the monopoly on the desktop OS out of those businesses.
8. When Gates has to divest half of MSFT, where will he put the cash? Buy a medium-sized ex-Soviet Republic, and teach them the MSFT corporate culture? Buy the entire Biotech industry?
9. MSFT, or whatever piece of it goes with Bill, will still be a great investment, when this battle with DOJ and the states is over. They will still have the largest collection of the best programmers on the planet, and software will still be one of the fastest growing industries. Those programmers will still be well organized, well led, and well motivated. They will still have a pristine balance sheet, except for the options overhang. I'm going to try and pick the point of maximal bad news as my buy-in point. Any guesses? |
