>>The implication in your statement is that WIND can't make the
numbers like they used to - I wouldn't make that statement.<<
I'm aware that WIND is managing earnings conservatively and being
careful to avoid the end-of-quarter "hockey stick". But we seem
to have had a steadily declining growth rate during the last year...
Wind River Systems Earnings
(In thousands)
Revenue Income
Quarter Revenue Income Growth Growth
------- ------- ------ ------- ------
Q1-FY96 8,700 667
Q2-FY96 10,100 1,207
Q3-FY96 11,400 1,537
Q4-FY96 13,800 1,972
Q1-FY97 12,600 1,470 45% 119%
Q2-FY97 15,000 2,090 49% 73%
Q3-FY97 16,600 3,460 46% 125%
Q4-FY97 19,800 4,260 44% 116%
Q1-FY98 18,400 2,950 46% 101%
Q2-FY98 22,000 3,870 47% 85%
Q3-FY98 24,000 5,210 45% 51%
Q4-FY98 28,000 6,190* 41% 45%
Here are some scenarios for the coming earnings report, showing
the rate of earnings growth given various per/share earnings...
Q1-FY99 scenarios...
.15/shr 3,840 30%
.16/shr 4,096 39%
.17/shr 4,352 48%
.18/shr 4,608 56%
*Before subtracting one-time charge against earnings.
WIND needs to exceed by at least 2 cents to reverse the trend. |
