Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Salah Mohamed who wrote (22065)	5/18/1998 8:10:00 AM
From: ToySoldier	Read Replies (1) of 42771

Salah, That was a very good analysis of NOVL's earnings prediction and what you think is the good and bad about NOVL. Based on the factors that you have kept in mind, NOVL's future wouldn't look too good. BUT, you are missing a couple things. First of all NW5 and even IntranetWare 4.11 will not just see a blip in sales. They should see a good strong increase in demand over the next 3-4 quarters. WHY? Because many of the long term fence-sitters of older versions of NetWare (3.11 2.x 4.10 4.0x) MUST upgrade their software to become Y2K compliant. I predict this will generate some substantial revenue for NOVL! I know for a fact that this will happen since I am employed by a large systems integrator/outsourcer and our clients are in the process right now of evaluating what software must be upgraded. They have all been given additional budgets to address these inevitable upgrades. So it will happen. And before you mention it, most will perform a simple upgrade within the Novell product line and not switch to MSFT. The other factor you haven't taken into account is the recent building of excitement and acceptance of NDS as the leading Directory Service that can now effectively mange even NT! Many big corporations are starting to see the true TCO savings that a mature DS like NDS can deliver. They also are coming to the realization that MSFT's Active Directory will not be out to provide this similar functional in the forseeable future. The other factor is the "Comeback" story in the computer industry itself is starting to shake this stupid mindset in a lot of I.T. decision makers that NOVL will not be around in a couple years. You wouldn't believe how many of these fears I have heard last year that actually was the major factor why they were going NT. Now that Wall Street and the computer industry press is continually projecting that NOVL is back, these IT decision makers will again make commitments to NOVL products. Combine all this with the fact that NOVL is putting out some great new products now and on time so far, I think that you are being a bit BEARISH. I still project that NW5 and ZENWorks will take NOVL earnings far. Then I think that NDS for NT with NT replication will further push NOVL's revenue and market share strengthening. NOVL's price will stay above $11 after this week. I predict that the share price will build in spurts to the upper teens by November. Just my 2 cents. Toy

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