Good morning Rick - very nice article...
Hey folks, add this article to your list of things to read. It Provides some information on the basics, as well as providing some space (thiny though) to the opinion that Internet telephony is the wave of the future.
What I like is the visioning done by the article. Here's an excerpt:
Free Telephone Service?
The notion that the threat of cheap long-distance calling is driving the carriers to embrace IP telephony may be a naive one. Low-cost calling may provide an initial lure for the consumer, but creative carriers and their suppliers are tuned to a different vision. While strident and opposing voices contend either that the PSTN as we now know it is dead or that IP telephony will never be able to compete, many understand that the truth, of course, is somewhere in between. In the long term, IP telephony may not end up being a cheap long-distance alternative.
Jim Wood, manager of Product Line Management, Siemens Internet Solutions, Siemens Stromberg-Carlson, suggests that ultimately there will be a blending of the technologies associated with the PSTN and evolving IP-based networks: "There will also be some pricing convergence, where some traditional pricing will start to deteriorate and Internet pricing will start to increase." The potential for IP telephony is rooted in more efficient use of the network. Like Wood, Kaufman thinks that a hybrid system will develop where each technology will serve the purpose for which it is best suited. "It's like the discussion that the mainframe is dead. The mainframe didn't die at all, it found it's own place. Circuit switching is a highly reliable, available, cost-effective technology designed for delivery of voice."
Although predictions of where it will all shake out are diverse and
contradictory, most analysts seem to agree that the trend toward voice on the net is already irreversible. A Forrester research report (Internet Telephony Grows Up, March 1997) predicts that by 2004, more than 4 percent of U.S. telco revenue-more than $3 billion-will migrate to IP telephony. Two-thirds of that revenue represents user spending and one-third is savings. Palo Alto-based Killen & Associates predicts that the IP telephony business will reach $63 billion by 2002. At the recent Pulver.com Voice on the Net (VON) conference in Boston, Fran‡ois-Eric de Repentigny of Frost & Sullivan summarized the primary market drivers (and restraints) for this growth (see Table 1).
Table 1:
Drivers and Restraints for the IP Telephony Market:
Market Drivers
Toll bypass or reduction;
Rapid product quality improvement;
Spreading interoperability;
Growth of Internet and intranets;
Carriers' need to offer value-added services;
Desire to integrate voice and data networks.
Market Restraints:
Lower voice quality;
Lagging infrastructure upgrade by corporations;
Increasing Internet access charges;
Decreasing PSTN prices;
Lack of global structure for ITSPs;
Source: Frost & Sullivan
In addition to pricing factors, infrastructure plays a big role at all levels. The end point is still distant and indiscernible; however, the issues are becoming clearer. What we see developing is the global placement of POPs, intranets and extranets, and gateways-an extensive data network complementing the telephone circuit-switched network, with all varieties of overlap and contact throughout, lots of on and off ramps. The technology leaders are likely to be upstarts who need large traditional partners to provide market reach while they deliver agility and a technological edge. As Forrester analyst Chris Mines comments, "The battle looms between the traditional telco equipment suppliers and IP suppliers."
The interesting thing to note that this article states, and I believe, that this will be an evolving industry. The system of communication may ultimately look very different than what we have today - this may only be a stepping stone to the end system. An analogy was drawn to the computer industry - look at the amazing changes that have taken place there in the last 30 years. And note: companies are beginning to think in a very different way! That leads to innovation - and innovation ontop of innovation.
It is clear that a company is going to have to have a vision of the future to survive. They will have to be nimble. And those that are in early are the ones that are going to help shape the future.
Remind you of a company that we are familiar with?
Here's the link again...
telecoms-mag.com
Thanks Rick. Way to get the brains in gear this am.
Lazarus |
