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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 285.43-2.5%Dec 31 3:59 PM EST
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To: DavidG who wrote (33600)5/18/1998 10:43:00 AM
From: mike iles  Read Replies (2) of 53903
 
DavidG, don't know what you're saying but if you think 64 Mbit isn't at $6-$8 check out Lehman's latest report which says they're selling at $8 in Asia. Jerry Denkera posted recently too and while not that low he indicated prices were lower than most people thought. What I'm trying to say is that instead of stabilizing, prices have dropped recently (contrary to DJ's article) and they will drop further as 64 Mbit ramps. There's still too much supply and there's no reason to believe that moving into 1999 will somehow magically change that situation. While I know you don't believe this David, MU is a laggard in 64 Mbit production. So the issue they're currently struggling with is trying to ramp 64 and get a decent yield while the price drops precipitously against them. Can they make money on 64s at $10, at $8, at $5??? When will 64s hit $5? ... this summer, this fall?? And please don't drag out the PC100 red herring. Everybody's going to make these parts. This is a commodity business. If MU had strong management, they would be investing heavily now at the bottom of the cycle. That's one way to win in a commodity business. Instead Stevie A. is going crying to Washington. Meanwhile the competition is opening fabs on his turf ... didn't someone just open in Oregon. Didn't MU just shelve plans to open a major test facility in the Lehi shell?? This is smart to pull in your horns at the bottom???

I've always had a grudging respect for MU's manufacturing skills but I'm starting to wonder if a lot of that wasn't due to Tyler Lowery.

regards, Mike
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