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Technology Stocks : Vitesse Semiconductor
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To: Joseph Kopko who wrote (288)11/14/1996 8:11:00 PM
From: Robert Talty   of 4710
 
Joe, I'm long QKTN and enjoying the recent rise.

I think there is a lot of demand for Emulation Systems (it's just the newest toy on the block so every engineer wants to have one).

The problem is that they are very expensive so when a down turn in the semi industry happens everyone tries to save money by delaying capital expenditure, thats what has been going on for the last year. I think that in all areas other than DRAM we are at the begining of a another growth cycle. So a lot of companies that were expecting the down turn to have drifted into other sectors of the semi industry now find that they have huge product demand, lots of cash and excess Fab capacity. This means they want ot design new products quickly.

This is the ideal environment for someone selling a system aimed at speeding up the new product design process. So I expect QKTN will see a lot of new orders and a lot of old " delayed purchases ". This will be a real boost to their bottom line hence the stock price rise.

Emulation is not the long term solution to all chip design problems but it will take a while before everyone realizes the short comings of the systems. In the meantime there are a lot of engineers who dream of having a Quickturn box so there is a lot of money to be made realizing these dreams.

regards
Robert Talty
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