[C.S.Y2K] SI-post (Y2K Embedded Systems) on C.S.Y2K!
'In article <6jkasv$psl$1@nnrp1.dejanews.com>,
fedinfo@halifax.com wrote:
>
>
>Here are Gary North's comments on Fred Swirbul's report.
>
>
>
>
>A report from the Dallas meeting of the Electric Power Research
> Institute.
>
>Most power companies are not finished with assessments. Those few that have
>begun testing are experiencing failures. But the failures aren't so critical
>that systems will shut down.
I never said that. Lower level embedded COMPONENTS don't seem to fail in a
way to shut down whole systems/plants, embedded SYSTEMs do.
> So, concludes the reporter, we will have power.
That is my personal opinion. I also believe I said "(most) of the lights
will be on". Someone will be sure to screw up somewhere.
> Now all we need to do is find ways of getting fuel shipped in and get power
>transmission systems compliant. And make sure that all the software is coded
>correctly, so that the individual systems are compliant. (PEPCO has 8,000
>noncompliant systems.) Then all of the vendor-supplied software must be
>compliant, consistent with each other, and fully integreated into the newly
>repaired systems.
> Next, the banks must be compliant, we that we can pay our power bills,
>assuming the U.S. Postal Service is compliant. The power companies must be
>able to pay each other for power consumed and also pay their suppliers. So,
>the suppliers must be compliant and remain in business, and so must their
>suppliers.
It seems Gary's point is that there are a lot of other secondary, inter
related "systems". True statement. They need to be looked at, just like
everything else, but they also won't directly cause the lights to go out,
with the exeption of the transmission systems. It is a choice a utility
will have to make if they are going to shut off you power because they
haven't received your payment.
> Apart from this, there's no problem.
>
>-----------------
>
>Anyone with half a brain can see that Fred Swirbul is completely ignorant of
>the magnitude of the situation. That is why Gary North ridicules his
>conclusions, because they are ignorant.
He didn't do a very good job, even considering the misquotes. I will assume
they were not made maliciously.
>But nothing will convince dyed-in-the-wool Pollyannas that there is big
>trouble brewing. As a matter of fact, the worse the news gets, the more
>confident they become that everything will come out alright.
>
>Fred Swirbul, completely ignores the overall situation that most utilities
>have not even completed an assessment of their embedded syaytems. He ignores
>that utilities have thousands of embedded systems to repair and 19 months to
>do it. He ignores the monumental nature of the task and how late they are in
>starting. He ignores the myriad of factors aside from a utility's own
>compliance that affect power generation. He is impressed, however, that they
>held a meeting.
You are twisting the facts again (is anyone surprized?). The average is about
700 per generation plant that needs to be tested. Then factor in a failure rate
of about 2.5% to 10%. Then you only have to fix a the fraction of those that
cause a plant to trip. It might be a tough job, but no where near insurmountable.
>Pull the covers up over your head, Fred. The monsters will go away.
I would rather stay on the front line and fight the "monsters", rather
than run away like you.
>Paul Milne
>http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/1590
>
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____
Subject:
Re: Gary North Ridicules Fred Swurbil
Date:
Sun, 17 May 1998 22:35:50 GMT
From:
Fred Swirbul <fswirbul@ix.netcom.com>
Organization:
ICGNetcom
Newsgroups:
comp.software.year-2000
References:
1 |
