VC++, up until last September, Y2K stocks were a big emotional play. At that point there was still more than two years to go and everyone expected the floodgates to be opening "real soon now". Didn't happen. So, we entered the "show me the money phase". The Indian companies skyrocketed because they already had the clients from past IT projects. Cap Gemini's Y2K survey showed that 90% of all companies looking to buy a Y2K tool had already done so by the end of '97 so tool vendors got smashed. Any Y2K company that missed estimates was hammered. For the most part, this is still happening. Even Indian companies have been is a steep decline lately.
The ALYD "estimates" that we point to form Q1 were actually made in late '97 based on, again, '98 being the time when the floodgates would open. They've since gone mum on predictions for good reason. If people don't like revenue growth from $2.5M to $6.2M to $8.4M, and earnings from .01 to .09, then so be it. But these are real figures, not hype.
Let's also not forget that there were 400K+ shares traded one day last week on no news. That's more than $5.2M! So whatever manipulation is going on is not small potatoes SI stuff we see on penny stocks.
But, yes, caution is urged with all Y2K stocks. If you are not convinced, as I am, there is a Y2K problem, stay away!
- Jeff
P.S. Disney is lonely without you. I think of you when I eat the undercooked shrimp. (gg) |
