makes my stock go up ? ;-)
Well yes, but some basis in reality might matter in the long run.
Although I imagine these seeds may be the ones that will grow the fastest
It would be nice if PRGS broke out sector sales so that we could see, but I would guess that Crescent hasn't contributed to the bottom line the way it was supposed to... either that or the sales of core product are a lot worse than we think. I guess I am skeptical of Apptivity being more than a niche player either.
Isn't the Oracle Application Dealer Network a VAR channel?
Have you checked to see how significant it is in contributing to Oracle's sales volume?
e fact that PRGS has doubled off its low and has little to no discussion makes me wonder if this is a fairly valued company.
If you look at the trading volumes, you will see that most of the time PRGS stock price is just drifting in the wind -- sometimes it drifts up, sometimes it drifts down, but without any grand purpose. Negative results like they had a year or so back will knock it down; good ones may help and upward drift, but often as not it is something more like the cyclical [stupid] rumors of MSFT buying them.
This is a company with a gold-plated balance sheet, very tight, conservative fiscal management which does an excellent job of damage control when revenues don't go as expected, and very little product vision. The VAR channel does a lot to keep them afloat, especially since it is often the application which matters to the VAR customer, not the underlying technology. So, the real risk there is in a competitor coming along with equal or better functionality *and* better technology, otherwise the VAR can win on functionality even with old ChUI systems. This was a great product in the days of host/terminal architecture -- the best, in fact. But, they just haven't made the transition to GUI and client/server and distributed deployment with art and impact. Each version is a little better than the one before, but meanwhile other companies are moving ahead by leaps and bounds so that PRGS is playing catchup and, even with someone else blazing the trail, they don't seem to be sure where the road is. A structure like this isn't going to fall apart overnight, but by the same token I don't see anything going on that is going to take them to great heights either. |
