Phil, I'm not so sure Apple could even produce enough machines to get double digit market share any time soon, even if it could sell them. Apple probably has the capacity to meet heavy iMac demand, but I'm not sure if Apple would be able to produce over a million boxes a quarter at this date.
Now, this is what I found interesting in the big Business Week article about Apple. The company projects that each percentage gain in market share would lead to a 20% revenue gain. We can bandy about those numbers, but my quick calculation is that each point gain in share equals another $250 million or so in profit.
I use a quarterly revenue baseline of $1.5 B since I think we'll see a move back to near that level this quarter. This is on 4% market share. 5% would equal another 20% revenue gain, ie $300 million more a quarter. Now say that margins suffer some as Apple gains share by selling lower priced machines. Let's go with 20% gross margins. If expenses could stay the same as now, ie sub-$300 million, then that's a free and easy $60 million extra gain a quarter, $240 million a year. Say Apple gets to 6%, we've got about half a billion in extra profits from lean and mean Apple, on top of the $200 or so million that it is due to earn this year at 4% share.
So my dream is that Apple gets back to 6% share. I want nothing else!
I leave it to others to run appropriate PE ratios, etc. The pieces in BW, Time, Newsweek, etc. were all pretty laudatory. Apple mindshare is improving rapidly.
Marc
PS--Jim, Jobs disengagement from MacWorld July? Did I miss something?
PPS--Wasn't there a trading AAPL thread that died out a year ago? I don't see it anymore but it used to be lively. I think in high volume trading times, like around earnings releases, Jobs' events, MacWorlds, etc. a trading forum would be useful for focusing simply on making quick money. If one isn't in the market to buy and sell AAPL at that time, easy enough to ignore the thread.
PPPS--Apple says it had no focus groups for the iMac. |
