<<I use a quarterly revenue baseline of $1.5 B since I think we'll see a move back to
near that level this quarter. This is on 4% market share. 5% would equal another
20% revenue gain, ie $300 million more a quarter. Now say that margins suffer
some as Apple gains share by selling lower priced machines. Let's go with 20%
gross margins. If expenses could stay the same as now, ie sub-$300 million, then
that's a free and easy $60 million extra gain a quarter, $240 million a year. Say
Apple gets to 6%, we've got about half a billion in extra profits from lean and mean
Apple, on top of the $200 or so million that it is due to earn this year at 4% share.>>
Excellent analysis, Marc. my estimate is close to what you have here.
I think Apple's getting better after iMac is available in August.
However, we should get back to about 1.5b revenue in current Q3, which
will bring in about 70m-85m net (or at least $0.58-$0.60 per share).
During now and Q3 reports (around 7/15), the stock may swing a bit
wider, but should be following the overall tech trend.
MM's have pushed all they could to reduce the payout for May calls
today's remaining options. They should be happy about the results. For
long investors, there is nothing different since tomorrow will be
another new day without any impacted parameter like options.
I think momentum investors are the major players in Apple's stock. As
long as no significant momentum, the price seems to be easily
controlled by MM's, like any other tech stocks.
Phil |
