FWIW: MY OPINION ONLY ON PLNM...because I promised a report
Here is my feeling on PLNM, honestly. I do not own it.
I talked in depth to PR firm today...did not have time to call CEO or visit, although did listen to his phone broadcast.
Company appears to have a good headstart and a great product. However, I feel that there may not be enough upside reward in this baby to atract my dollars, although would not be surprised to see if climb to $3.00 or above, in the near future.
My thinking is clear (please call PR or CEO yourself to verify):
Company expects earnings of 1 cent or so in 1998, and 10 cents a share in 1999, which, if you assume a PE of 25, stock should be at $2.50 by sometime near the end of 1999. Not sure it couldn't go higher but with MSFT coming into the field this summer (according to my Prudential broker), albeit NOT in the wholesale arena, I am going to pass on this stock for now. Also lots of folks in at 50-$1.00 which is a bit of a negative in my risk/reward scenario. MSFT certainly could cut into PLNM's planned revenue from the retail arena, but wholesale area looks great and they should be profitable in the next month or two, he said.
Admittedly, the thing that is strange is that this stock probably deserves in some ways to be higher than PNLK. The thing PLNK had going was being the first stock of its kind to attract our attention and cause extra excitement. I promoted it heavily in the TMEX CAFE thread at $1.10. IT seemed like a "Can't miss", especially at those levels.
The excitement also caused a "disguised earnings" scenario. What I mean is that PNLK did not (and still DOES not) have people asking about earnings much yet, but for some reason this one does. Not fair, but now that I know the earnings, I am not as sure it will go up.
Now if someone can justify a PE of 50 for me, then I will reevaluate, since $5.00 by sometime in 1999 would then be possible. Make sense?
Much more excited about TMEX's <BCAM> than this stock, but no one should get hurt here, as it is a very nice company, it appears. Good luck to all (and I have often been wrong at how high stocks can go). May you all see $5.00 soon!
PS-- my money is going hog wild into Tmex's Monday find: <BCAM>
that one should triple from here...it is a very sexy and marketable stock with great technology and nice PR in Business Week (unsolicited article) and reprotedly in "Time Magazines" supplement that hit newsstands today. Have a look at the BCAM thread if interested. |
