AMEX Oil Index, Industrials, Transports, Nasdaq, Russell2000:
Yes I was doing a "quick and dirty" survey to check how the overall picture looks. Marc is right about Oil sector technical break down. AMEX oil index (486) tried to break 506, just bounced off. Support is at 474. Industrials (9050) look shaky, about to test support at 8970 and then maybe 8763 (3.3%lower from today, would be about 5% correction), Transports (3367) look sicker testing support at 3360. You know what happens if they break it; the Dow Theory, this, that, yada yada yada... I do not even know if those 100 year old theories hold water anymore :-) Anyhooo, where were we? Huh, Nasdaq (1831) looks like forming a rounding top, and believe me it looks like the last few corrections. Support is at 1730. Russell is also forming a rounding top formation. Summing 'em all up, overall market looks pretty shaky to me. I think we will have a 5-8% correction maybe due to a rate hike. I do not see Fed raising the rate on some basis but I think it may happen when everybody tries to believe otherwise. On other basis, I do not know other parts of the country but California real estate and rents are sky-rocketing. It is a part of inflation isn't it?
Anyway, shortly I raised some cash, unloaded fat, kept few good ones (along with three oil issues :-() Will wait until the clouds clear.
Who knows, if Fed does not hike, everyone may rush back like mad bulls.
Good luck guys. |
