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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)

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To: VLAD who wrote (8149)	5/19/1998 8:10:00 AM
From: DaiS	Read Replies (1) of 23519

Vlad, Regarding this weeks script numbers ... Even if the slight inflection upwards last week (week 5) in the number of repeat scripts is significant, which I doubt, the downward trend this week (week 6) still arrests slightly a downward trend in repeats during weeks 1 to 4 after viagra (AV). Before viagra (BV) the repeats had risen to 5K. Given that these were men a bit clued up on ED, we should expect 40% to 60% of these to be lost to viagra. Thus the expected number of muse repeats would be 2000-3000. It looks like this is where the repeat scripts are levelling out. The 280K men per week going to viagra were evidently either too shy, ignorant, or not sufficiently ED affected to be recruited to muse BV and it seems likely to me that recruitment from these viagra failures to muse will be very slow - unless Vivus makes big effort. It is pleasing that the graph for muse new users does seem to be levelling out. But I still cannot fathom why these men are going to muse, unless they really are experimenting with viagra + muse, or they do already include some viagra failures. DaiS

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