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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: donald sew who wrote (18693)5/19/1998 10:23:00 AM
From: Robert Graham  Read Replies (3) of 94695
 
I have found that when a "pro" trader is thrown by exuberance, it is usually a good bet to fade them. Shall we call this the "Bobby Factor"? <g>

However, as with all fades, timing is important. The trouble here is to quantify this exuberance. Perhaps a post count each day on there key words show up like the number 10,000 and such. I like how this guy makes changes to his plan as reality unfolds and then says "everything is going to plan". Heck, this several year bull run has been going to MY plan. Right? Even that paper loss in IFMX for $20,000. <g>

I can think of one trader here on SI that had well over 15 open option positions on earnings trades and then left the trades to work full time at a job. Talk about the unwarranted confidence of very positive sentiment. This was after several earnings warning seasons that were showing earnings disappointments and a market that was giving obvious warning signals of a pending downturn. Then last October tanked where this trader lost in two days a good part of their portfolio. They would of been a good contrarian indictor at that time. I think they still may be a good contrarian indicator, for the trader has a pattern of going back on the promises they made to themselves in an attempt to keep that from happening again.

Bob Graham
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