Hi Salah, point by point:
> Unfortunately for those vendors, the new positions are likely to be
> less profitable, MacDonald said.
Increases in competition causes one of two things: 1) drives down the price of less-functional products -OR- 2) causes companies to add functionality to their products so that they can keep their prices high. I think Novell fits the second of these models. This can be a good thing, like when Cisco just keeps putting more and more stuff in the box and keeps their margins high vs when Lantronix sells an Internet router for $500. Would this same analyst say that Cisco is in danger from Lantronix? I don't think so...
> "There's lots more money to be made selling a platform like NetWare
> or Vines, but the market is moving away from it," he said.
Funny, I thought unit volume is up...?
> In addition, vendors like Microsoft and Netscape, by giving away
> software such as Web browsers, are trying to drive the industry
> toward a commodity market, he said.
Well Netscape is trying to drive the industry to a new model. Microsoft sure doesn't want Netscape to succeed, so they also give their stuff away. Not because they want the new model to get commoditized, but because they want to keep the Wintel commodity model in place. Sure, they're both trying to commoditize technology, but they are very different technologies, architectures and models. This by itself helps Novell, since the more platforms there are on a network, the more need there is for network servers and services that unite them together. Networking is about connecting stuff together, and nobody does that better than Novell.
> "That's why there are disappointing financial returns and they're
> searching for new leadership," he said.
I thought the diminished revenue was due to things like write-offs, customers waiting for the new versions, etc.
> Are web browsers going to replace NOSs?. I wouldn't think so.
Not COMPLETELY, at least not in the near future. Right now, the only market that's big/viable enough to support the NC/browser model are those sites that have historically been able to support the mainframe/mini model. They have the staff in place to manage the resources, the expertise in large systems management, etc. We're not going to see browsers replacing PCs in any other market any time soon.
Now having said that, it's extremely important to look at what the customers who will be buying into this model are going to be looking for in this model. They want security, accountability, strong infrastructure management tools, etc. They don't want the mailroom clerk to be reading the president's e-mail.
They'll need to have a place to store the applications that run on the servers. They need to have a place to store the documents that get created (with the appropriate security). They need to backup all of this data. And oh, they also need to support their existing wintel, Mac and other clients while they roll these new systems out.
To me, this all sounds like a great opportunity for Novell. They have the strongest tools in the industry, and have a better chance of succeeding than just anybody else.
In short, I don't think it matters if browsers take off. Will they replace a "NOS"? Heck no. If anything they will make a NOS all that more important. Networking is about connectivity, and nobody does that better than Novell. |
