Thanks for the clarification Jerry--I just wasn't sure exactly what
you were referring to.
Actually, one of the reasons I bailed, despite earnings coming in
on my estimate, was that the stock price had almost doubled from
my purchase price. Since I was expecting this to take maybe a
year or 2, I decided to shoot first and ask questions later. I'm
looking to get back in if the stock falls back a bit. Too many
eperiences on my part with penny stocks falling back after a decent run up.
Call me a skeptic, but I didn't take the investment group announcement to be a positive. The company gave up control
for what amounts to an 8% investment. This is highly unusual, at
least, I've never seen it before TOTL. This allows the investment
group to do things that are in their best interest, but not ours, like
have TOTL purchase one of their companies. I'm not even saying
this is the case--it's just how I think. The high level of the market,
as well as a good dose of margin debt,
forces me to focus more at the downside than the upside so I don't
give up all my gains from the last 3 years.
My current back of the envelope calculations show about 3-4 cents
in Q4 (I threw the $35 million revenue number out with Q3 revenue
results). Assuming 4 cents, that's 14 cents for the year, 23 times
trailing earnings @3 1/4. A month ago this would not have been too
far out of line, but I didn't like the subdued revenue growth, especially
the decline in two of their business segments (I believe earlier the
company had stated they they were growing smartly in all four
segments).
I'll wait either for the stock to come back to the 2 1/2 range (famous
last words), or for some indication that the prior top line growth rates
remain intact.
Now, if I can just find the next internet based cancer cure.
Carl |
