Larry, I know that you and many TA folks follow the candlestick
stuff. Here is my take on it. While I have never been to a casino,
I compare candlesticks to the red and black on a roulette wheel.
About eight years ago, I got the brilliant idea that if someone
watched the pattern, and if, say 5 reds came up in a row, bet the
black.
I decided to check the odds on the computer, and had one of my
employees flip a coin 2000 times, and the results were entered
into a spreadsheet as 1's and 0's.
I then checked various patterns.
If 4 in a row appear, what are the odds of the opposite color
winning. What if 5 in a row, 6 in a row, up to 10 in a row.
What if you lost, and you doubled up on the next bet.
Well, the results were that you will always lose, because the
odds are not even 50-50, because of the two greens where the
house wins all.
Candlesticks don't have the house greens, but I still see it as
50-50 odds of changing colors.
Just thought that you would be interested.
Patrick |
