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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 145.06-1.6%2:01 PM EST
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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (5493)5/20/1998 11:10:00 PM
From: shane forbes  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Katherine:

Thanks for that. I felt people could always cancel orders so that's why I did not think that this was the reason revenue has held up reasonably well in the billings area. In any case the billings fluctuate far less than the bookings.

Mmmm... now that I take another look at the data - looks like you have a VERY good point. It appears that the bookings numbers lead the shipments numbers by about 4 months. Thus what we may be seeing are the effects of the high bookings in Oct - Dec'97. If this is true then shipments should really (and I mean really tail off) in July-Sep'98. (based on the bookings going from 1.550b in Dec'97 to 1.074b in Apr'98 (about a 31% drop). Thus revenues would be going a little under a billion in one of those 4 months if all this hokiness works. Add on
the maintenance portion and it may not drop as much. But just looking at the data roughly I think it is possible for shipments to be hitting the 1.0 - 1.1b range in the July-Sep'98 time frame pretty easily (again no averaging!). Like the hokiness...
But thanks for the AMAT find.

I'm not an HTML junkie myself but the tags that work are <'PRE> and <'/PRE> (without the ').

Shane.
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