<<Market share information (guesses) from previous SFAM cc for 1997:
1. SFAM - 22 - 25% market share and growing.
2. AMAT - small but increasing.
3. Ebara - 22 - 25% and increasing.
4. IPEC - 50% or under but decreasing.
Overall, CMP market is growing.>>
I have seen subsequent numbers for IPEC which were not as flaterring (<<50% - I think something like 35%). ANd I know from a very reliable source that AMAT will have a beauty pagent soon re CMP - that does not bode well for IPEC. Ironically, I believe this has been referred to earlier on the thread sometime last year by someone else - Craig Seibel (sorry if I butchered your name - old age creeping up on me :~) ) if memory serves me correctly.
Regarding Ebara, I suspect if Japan continues to slide economically, their impact will be somewhat reduced in the market. If the dollar-yen ratio begins to favor them in pricing, it will ultimately hurt them on the R&D side. I believe that their market is essentially Japan with some flow to SEA. If this is actually correct, then they're marketshare (& growth) will be slowing in view of the SEA/Japan slowdown. Does anyone know if they have any customers outside Asia? In the U.S.?
<<AMAT now claims to have a "leadership" position in CMP in Morgan CNBC interview. No market share figures provided by AMAT. Given the above, is AMAT overstating its hand so as to make its claimed position a reality? Interesting.>>
Just remember the materiality standard for statements such as these. As the present income generated by their CMP is neglible as a percentage of AMAT's overall earnings, it is immaterial and thus AMAT's can "claim leadership" or anything else they want because there would be no shareholder deception under SEC rules. Now, SFAM can't do that b/c CMP is essential to their bottom line. SFAM can't puff like AMAT. SFAM's IR is more than aware of AMAT over stating their position. I've conversed with SFAM's IR about this, and there is little they can do but prove otherwise by bringing in the business. That's one of the benefits of being a "Gorilla." Also, by being a Gorilla, AMAT can give away its machines for free over the short term (does this sound like MSFT to anyone? :~)) just to establish that they have "marketshare." Since they are not obligated to break out their numbers by product line, one never knows where their EPS is coming from, so you'll never know what they are doing behind the scenes. This is what frigtens most smaller semi-equip players. This is why I suspect in the long term (July perhaps at SmiCon West?) NVLS and SFAM will marry and live happily ever after.
Just one man's spin....SemiBull |
