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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 237.10+2.7%12:16 PM EST
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To: Paul V. who wrote (19591)5/20/1998 11:48:00 PM
From: jtechkid  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
the market should rally tomorrow on suharto but the reality is if you get the blinders off this market is in big trouble. as i stated, when amat came out with numbers it was a suckers rally or unconfirmed because the sox index decline and big dram makers -mu-txn were down and intel is getting destroyed. one mistake people are missing with this downturn is people think that all of a sudden amat or the semi will just come out with great numbers very soon. the facts are simple amat will have made more money in 1996 then it will make in 1998 and amat was around 15-20 back then . people who say semi's move three to six months before hand do not understand semi's and do not do their homework. the simple fact is in 1996 the book to bill bottomed around february and ligered under 1 till october. the semi stocks got pounded in july and became way oversold and bounced up a little until october and november. the book to bill broke 1 in october 1996 and the full rally did not happen to november r. at some point, investors will get sick of holding these non momentum stocks. the only reason amat or other semi's hold up is if the markets hold up somewhat. even today, the dow had its biggest gains this month and the semi's got pounded. also, the pre announcements will start to come in june and you should obviously start to see some bad news coming. i see klac,nvls, ter, egls, lrcx, as companies that have over 80% chance of pre announcing.
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