cb- Im an investor with about 20% of my portfolio in semiconductor related stocks. I get the data from all over the internet.
I try to make a habit of listing the source.
The downturn, starting with memory chips, then graphics chips, communication IC's,and now the general chip market,will eventually play itself out.Weakness in passives and some connectors has also recently been seen.
Another hint at a bottom was given yesterday when ADI announced weakness in earnings. Analog chips had been considered, a "safer haven" for those interested in chip investing.I don't see any major segments or related areas now that are showing much strength. The question now seems to be : How long will the weakness, which might finally be observed as a " broad weakness", persist? To answer that is very difficult if not impossible.My personal view is that we are now in a general industry bottoming phase which will last a few more months and then we will see gradual and spotty improvements in certain segments.However,the semiconductor market is so huge,complex and diverse that it's hard for me to get a handle on it with any conviction, so I keep posting data I find relevant, hoping to somehow catch a new insight or trend developing that lets me see beyond the doom and gloom ,and the hype and optimism , into some kind of elusive logical indication as to whether or not the industry is improving or still headed south. One thing I have noticed is that , besides being revised often,the figures are historically erratic which makes it very difficult to nail down a long term trend, such as a sustaining recovery. |
