JP-
You wrote: <<If appearent trend in DELLs abality to beat numbers continues, it will report below EPS Ests in another quarter or two.>>
Please, please quit being so sloppy with your characterizations, classification of existing data! You are being misleading!
Over the past 4 quarters:
Quarter ending % of surprise
July 97 8.8
October 97 6.15
January 98 7.1
April 98 5.2
From here, Dell could just as easily pop up to a 6,7,8 % (or more) surprise as drop to a 3-4 % surprise next quarter. How you deduce this data indicates an "apparent trend" which means Dell will report below EPS estimates in the next quarter (or subsequent quarter), is beyond me. You are free to guess this. But the data does not support a good argument for this. Please quit manipulating data to support your views. Any statistician would take you to school for such a characterization! (Your argument reminds me why I hated faculty meetings at the university I used to work at..)
Any real analyst, statisticians would put the latest % upside surprise "within the margin of error" rhelm, and would be not support your view.....
Let me give you an example which indicates that there is some trouble, indicating some sort of trend:
Compaq, 16 million dollars in profit, 1c per share EPS....
HP- no profit on PC sales in 1Q
IBM- Little or no profit on PC sales in 1Q
THAT, MY FRIEND, IS A TREND!
For now, I think you should shelve this argument until after the next earnings announcement!
I'm sure, however, you will keep working hard trying to make mountains out of molehills!
(BTW- I will be the first to congradulate you when you have picked up on a clear, discernable trend that indicates a fundamental loss in value of Dell. Thanx for your continued efforts!) |
