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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)
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To: kolo55 who wrote (2951)5/21/1998 2:39:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe  Read Replies (3) of 27311
 
>> Here's my guestimate at a timeline

Nice schedule, Paul ... I saw it and canceled the one I was
working on ... I agree with your phasing ... also think there
could be as much as 50%-100% slip ... maybe more, as I think
you might be optimistic on the demand side adoption efficiency
... IOW, I think the customers are simply not ABLE to move that
fast.

I also rather think this schedule is missing a 2-3 month phase
where the OEMs step from unit testing (< 500 units total) to
volume testing (> 500 units in preproduction tests). I forsee
the typical 1-3 week delays when any OEM moves from one phase
to the next.

Each OEM will have their own concept, policies and procedures
regarding the test process, but I think most will use at least
a 2-stage test process pre-design rather than the one stage you suggest.

There are already concerns about LI "incidents" so I think OEMs
wanbt to do lots of testing. The cycle COULD be ...

- adoption test (lab test of battery cells per se)
- alpha test (low volume test of OEM "packaged" cells)
- beta test (mid volume test of OEM "packaged" cells)
- preproduction test (high volume test of OEM "packaged" cells)

If an OEM went for a high-confidence test design, the time-to-market
could stretch to 6-8 months.

Of course, OEMs will vary. Some OEMs will "charge" to market, some
OEMS will move very slowly.

So let's not make rigid pictures of POs arriving in June ... even
with perfect goodwill all around, it could be quite awhile longer.

But it seems clear that things are on the move.
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