Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Robert Graham who wrote (18915)	5/21/1998 2:44:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (3) of 94695

So what is you thinking on the upcoming earnings season? My unsolicited view is that, if AG was being straight with us today, we have not yet seen the effects of the Asian Flu. Analysts have been shifting all their projected growth out into the second half of the year, leaving full year estimates for a lot of companies pretty much unchanged. With imports growing and exports shrinking, many companies are getting hit on two fronts (price competition from Asian imports domestically and in Europe as well as weak demand plus price competition in much of the rest of the world). I expect to see many more downward revisions like we saw yesterday and today on GTW. And, not just in tech stocks - what industry is not global these days? I don't think it will be Fed rate hikes that will bring this market down, but rather weak earnings. Some may doubt that weak earnings in a stable rate environment and without a recession could bring the market down, but it has happened before. It may take some news or event to start it rolling, but that would just be the excuse, not the real reason. BWDIK? Bob

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