First off, if Big Dog likes something you ought to take a close look at it. After all, he's in the middle of the action and his picks speak for themselves.
As to whether you should buy MIND or MDCO, well that depends on what kind of an investor you are. They are both great value plays IMO. It would be difficult for me to imagine you buying them now and not making money if you held them long-term.
Anyone for digression?
Stocks can only go up if demand outstrips supply, so fundamentals alone can't make a stock rise. People need to be motivated to buy, either because of the fundamentals or because of, shall we say, less rational reasons.
Technical analysis helps you understand some of that irrational stuff when fundamental analysis fails. Sometimes it tells you that an undervalued stock is likely to remain irrationally undervalued, or even become more undervalued.
In this sector now, a lot of the motivation comes right from the oil prices. So everyone declares that TA is failing because it's trumped by oil - and that's fairly accurate. But, FA is also failing in the face of oil. Some of these stocks have remained undervalued far longer than the FA people expected, especially in light of the bull move in the broader market during the first quarter.
This sector has been a battle of emotions between optimism from robust earnings projections and pessimism brought on by weak oil prices. The roller coaster charts are the emotional record.
Clearly, if oil prices are less of a motivating factor to shareholders (and potential shareholders) of a particular company, then all else being equal, that stock is going to have an easier time rising in the present oil glut.
Hopefully, that gives you some things to think about when looking at these companies. I don't think anyone can tell you what is best for yourself, so with that excuse, I've avoided giving a concrete opinion and rambled on as my heart desired.
Thanks for indulging,
OO7
PS I enjoyed the comment about about your father. |
