Casey, I've made several postings to this thread about Matridigm technology, but I will summarize for you benefit:
1. The technology has a pretty fair chance to work, to make money for the company, but it is not ground-breaking, and it will be limited when there's an absolute need for file expansion/conversion as in date in key fields.
2. The accuracy being claimed is 99.999% which really translates to this: manual correction will be needed at some point ... maybe it's 1 line every 10,000 ... maybe its 1 line every 100,000 ... but in my experience, there are times when looking for that 1 mistake is like looking for that proverbial needle in the haystack.
3. The conversion doesn't include compilation, which means manual effort to perform unit testing... the 'test' that Matridigm claims it will do will not be an acceptable substitute for unit testing ... if you've been president of I.S. part of your standards would have been mandatory unit testing ... correct?
4. There are, and would be other competing products because there are no significant barriers to entry in this field ... faster rate of conversion is not as significant as accuracy ... these are tools ... and tools are judged by their utility and value ...
On the issue of valuation, do you know that the $3-$4 intraday swing of Zitel adds/deducts $80 million to Matridigm's valuation ... for a company which hasn't made a dime yet ... When I say they have a fair chance of making money, this $80 million is what I have in mind ... but I'm talking about annual revenues in 1998 ... I dwell more on a company's ability to land contracts and successfully implement conversions ... how fast it will be able to keep up with demand assuming it will be there ...
The other issue is what kind of valuation method do you apply to a company whose revenues are expected to peak at some point prior to 2000 ... Wall street has a term for this: FLAT EARNINGS, and they do punish companies severely for this ... as in a PE of 10 and a sales ratio of 2 ...
But In this kinder and gentler thread, your views as well as mine should have a chance to coexist ...
P.S. TO JAMES JOHNSON ... YOUR MOTHER REALLY WEARS COMBAT BOOTS !!!
|
