omar, if revenue is $15 mm the market will not in any way shape or form consider it a mixed bag. what they will focus on is $0.55, $0.41 (if they're smart, if not they'll focus on $0.27 - including attorney's fees, etc.) and $0.15.
let's see, .55, .41, .15, ????? 99.9% of the american investors don't have the ability to delve into the *details* of a business. the market will assume less than .15, probably $0-$0.05, next q and value this company based upon expected FUTURE earnings. if this holds up and they make $0.15 from operations, everyone will expect $0.20 or much less in FUTURE annual eps and value this company based upon that. my estimate is a $2.50-$3.00 stock if it weren't for all the special cause factors last q.
that's why i believe it will come in at $7.00-$10.00 b/c some will give the benefit of the doubt due to all the tribulations.
nobody cares about the past UNLESS it affects the FUTURE. is this right? it doesn't matter b/c that is just the way it is. companies have traded at a 1, 2, or 3 pe before precisely b/c the past year was good but the future looks like it's in the toilet.
in any case, i'd sell as soon as possible if i thought $0.15 ops eps was likely, or even possible. i'd buy back at 1/2 to 2/3 the price :-)
over the long haul, though, i get the feeling business is good. if the stock dips dramatically this q then i suspect there will be a great opportunity to buy next q.
good luck and i hope they release soon.
btw, jana said in the october (?) conference call that they were "busy" and the "numbers" should bare this out. $0.15 would completely and utterly defy this statement.
MY HUNCH: A CONFIDENT COMPANY CAN DOWNPLAY THEIR NUMBERS ;-) BECAUSE WHEN THEY COME IN - THEY'LL EITHER BE $0.40 - OR BLOW OUT :-)
we shall see... i either make a little $$$$$ now or nfli continues to teach me patience and perseverence... ;-) |
