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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: k.ramesh who wrote (22686)5/22/1998 8:25:00 PM
From: MonsieurGonzo  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Ramesh; RE:" fall from 116 to 107 mostly due to RIG DO and..."

>...would you agree ?

They all appear (to me) to rise and fall together, Ramesh - some rise and fall more than others (of course) and when we run a comparo of the OSX.X index with any component, their correlation is apparent. That they are so correlated (even, it seems, intra-day) with the ebb and flow of CL98Z Crude Oil Futures - is fascinating; I mean, who is watching oil prices that closely and buying and selling OSX.X stocks ?

Perhaps that's why I recommend any driller-freaque chart the OSX.X index itself, and trade with the index, as well as the CME or other commodity/future indicator of oil prices. In lieu of that, some traders use SLB as an OSX.X "bellwether", like INTC for SOX.X .

Punching in the components one-by-one into Yahoo's quote mechanism reveals a big universe of non-OSX index stocks, (which are all in the sector but not components of the index), some rather big-cap and many smaller-cap ones, roughly organized into four sub-sector groups - I call them:

OSX.D DRILLERS

OSX.M MACH & EQUIP

OSX.S SERVICES

OSX.T TRANSPORTS


I took the trouble to rank them all by size (capitalization) and then stuck them into portfolios to track these OSX sub-sectors as well as the OSX index and its specific components.

The OSX has a fairly clear cyclical nature to it, Ramesh. Remove the trendlines and it looks like sine waves. Take a chart of the OSX, remove the "noise" by making it a simple line chart of closing prices, print it out and then cut the trend/channels out, laying them side -by- side lengthwise ( or do this in your head :-) ...and it is these "waves" that are so compelling to trade.

Finally, it is interesting to reduce all OSX component stocks' charts to percentages rather than prices - from some important date, ( such as 12-JAN-98 ) - print them out (as simple line charts of closing prices) on transparent, "overhead" type media on your inkjet. Overlay these and, wow! It is surprising which stocks actually gain and lose money, when the seduction of +5 points on an $80 SLB is put next to a +2 point gain on a $20 VRC, for example. (^_^)

-Steve
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