Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (5105)	5/22/1998 9:21:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) of 42834

i'm 50-50 on deflation or inflation. i'm pretty sure we will se one of the two in the not too distant future. kirk, i meant an extreme case of inflation or deflation. maybe 12-24 months out. not a small jump or decline. a BIG one. like a japan. or the u.s. in the 70s. interesting. i'm not sure i agree, but that makes this all the more interesting. Here is my short term thinking... I've been "leveraged" with a home mortgage now at 50% of total value (from 20% 3.5 yrs ago...lots of inflation in housing prices in Los Altos, CA). I am now at a teaser rate of 6.25%. I need to get another 1 yr teaser rate in a few months or pay a point or two and lock in the jumbo loan. If we have deflation, then paying points is wasted money other than piece of mind. If we have inflation, then I want the lowest rate possible locked in for 30 yrs. If rates stay where they are for another year or drop, then I want another risky teaser (about 6% fixed for a yr) on a variable loan. Now that I am "comfortable" and work is a lower paying "hobby" it seems prudent to make sure this continues and I lock in near 7% and don't pay more than a point (this would be what I saved by going to 6.25% for a yr vs 7% fixed thus a wash). lots of data in a short period, but you can see my "interest" in predicting where rates will go. you can also see what i have been doing the past few yrs is borrowing "short term money" for my home mortgage and paying a considerably lower rate. all this was possible due to the expectation of lower interest rates. not bad getting 2.72x total return (nearly a tripple!) on my principal in 3.5 yrs (downpayment) while paying 6.25% for the money and having uncle pick up a third of the interest tab! maybe i should just smile and lock in but ....... sorry fir letting a few caps sneak in kirk out

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next