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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?
MSFT 472.22-1.3%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: FR1 who wrote (7882)5/23/1998 4:25:00 AM
From: Hal Rubel  Read Replies (4) of 74651
 
How High Will Microsoft Fly?

RE:'Smart investors should wise up. MSFT won the minute Justice decided not to press for a suit breaking up MSFT."

I am very inclined to agree:
Microsoft won by not being broken up. And it did so in spite of itself. (Though there is still the issue of bringing the way Microsoft dictates contracts into the modern American way.)

What Microsoft Lost:
1) Its Aura of Assendency
2) The Automatic Presumption of Business & Moral Sainthood for Bill Gates.
3) Its Total & Unrestricted Business Freedom from now on.
4) Its Total Dominance over Box Makers.
5) The Unquestioned Good Will of the Non-computer Aware American Public.
6) Its Potential for Unlimited Unchallenged Growth. And,
6) Its currently Outstanding PE Ratio, which may well have peaked historically along with its apparent prospects.

It no longer looks like Microsoft will be able to dominate any industries that it is not already dominant in. We are talking here about Broadcasting, Telecommunications, Advertising, and the News Media.

Microsoft has reached a new level of maturity in its life as a firm. Historians may well say that this is the very week that Microsoft reached its high water mark in terms of amazing growth, though it will continue to grow.

There seems to be handwriting on the wall. My guess guess is that 2 years from now a bigger & better Microsoft will be selling at a hefty 30 times earnings, and rewarding shareholders with a healthy steady return.

History was made this week, and you and I were there.

Good Night.

HR
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