Well, don't know if I'll be able to actively respond to all the responses directed to me (3 by 7:30 AM CST)...I never planned to join this thread, but as I said Black Friday prompted me to jump in.
Let me try to respond to a few points to Roy -
> Apparently more than a few. Don't we all enlightened now?
I know...got carried away. These major thoughts are slowly forming, event by cataclysmic event, lately. I'm starting to know more FORMER VARS than CURRENT VARS. This catches my attention.
> Not so fast. Your post (a record for original non-pasted content in this thread, by my estimate) only shows that you're worried about your
livelihood. It's quite obvious. <-- Noted about length of post. Yes, when I certain companies I respect such as Pre-Owned Electronics starting to sell Compaq parts (yes, they do this now)...I start to concern myself with future direction and viability. I can read between the lines. I think Pre-Owned, a smart, street-tough independent Apple parts reseller, knows parts sales volume is MOSTLY a function of marketshare...so you fill in the blanks about how they view their future with Apple parts.
Killing the clones was the only way Apple could become profitable.
Spindler and Amelio managed to make such bad deals with the clone makers that Apple was not being adequately compensated for the engineering expenses incurred by the process. Jobs knew this and put a stop to it. <- I don't disagree with the base assumptions IN THE SHORT RUN (cloners *did* attack the high end and cannabalize high-margin business), so the SHORT TERM tactic was correct...the higher-level strategy, though, is suspect. Cloners GREW the marketshare of the platform...Apple does not and never will. Don't ask me why a new user, never having owned a Mac, would buy a clone AND BE HAPPY, but I saw evidence of this and always scratched my head. Based on documentable data floating around about the time of the great clone kill-off last summer, raw Mac-OS marketshare was genuinely growing and, I'm sure of it, Mac software developers were breathing a sigh of relief during that period of clone dominence. Look at the reduction of marketshare since Apple became basically "sole supplier" once again. My base opinion, more than anything else, is 8-10% MARKETSHARE = LONG-TERM SUCCESS. LESS = FAILURE. BTW - don't you wonder why clones did so well against Mother Apple ? Because they consistently offered more performance for the dollar invested...if you think Apple has wised up...don't be fooled...the G3 chip was a leap forward...Apple has given us nothing more than they had to performance-wise...and will continue if not get worse in selling only minimally what they have to to keep 1) a step ahead of Intel's best chip, yet 2) save something for the future, even if it means hobbling a machine over what it has the potential to be. Clones had to compete R&D and performance-wise to survive...and compete and innovate they did. Apple could do one thing to respond (instead of effectively compete on specs & price points)...if you can defend this attitude, then I am disappointed.
If Apple had made correct decisions as "the only game in town" back mid-90s or earlier, they would truly be in charge of their destiny today (license the ROMs/OS of course). That failure has been discussed time and again. That they are now, once again, the only game, by virtue of an acting CEO being the biggest bully around...does not give me great confidence in a viable Apple beyond some immediate sales spikes (due clearly more to the G3 attractiveness than anything else).
One of the best things Apple ever did was get rid of the garbage --
large national chains that did nothing to help sell Macs. They knew
nothing about them, and did little to maintain what they had. Good
riddance. <-- I know what you mean...I don't dispute that this was a good thing in some respects. I predicted that when Walmart started stocking Performas...and when Apple stopped putting an OS CD in the Performa (initially that's the way it was -to save a lousy $1 piece of media)...I felt the fickele retail/home user would bring these back in droves...."because my Mac won't boot" or other 1000s of reasons. Happened just like I thought...and Sears, M Wards, et al, are *still* trying to sell off their old 3 & 4 yr old stocks...I get faxes often from brokers trying to sell these old Performas. Fortnately, this similar problems happened to other WINTEL brands also...as these retail formats, with no-questions-asked return policies ate the computer manuf. lunch. Yes, I can't argue that pulling out of these retail stores was a bad move, except for, once again, less visibility with Joe Consumer = one less reason to consider the Mac. Apple effectively "killed the messenger" (retail store which did a crappy job of merchandising) and didn't respond to the core problem (why macs didn't sell in this format).
Apple eventually wants to go 100% direct sell? Wouldn't happen for many years, but it works for Dell, doesn't it? <-- Yes, Dell model works great for Dell...but you miss the real reason why it works great...NO ONE who uses WIN OS by choice needs to be SOLD on the WIN OS...he/she knows the OS they prefer. With them it's just a matter of finding the BEST HARDWARE SUPPLIER for their needs (and saving state sales tax is one of Dell's best strengths over buying locally for mailorder buyers)...whereas with Apple, yes, 4% of the world knows it wants Apple...but the rest of the world wouldn't consider buying Apple. So Apple will, without question, capture most of this 4% marketshare if they sold Macs out of the back of a pickup truck or through the Internet in a direct sale model. No great insight here.
BUT they will not grow the marketshare...VARs and on-the-street advocates do this. I'm telling you I'm a 9yr STRONG ADVOCATE...that's about to walk away from it all. I personally know ex-VARs that just leave the industry. You call it self-serving....I call it a picture of your future. You have to re-read this short para over once or twice to grasp this, and I fear I have not communicated my position well. But last post, and this post... I emphasized that marketshare = success...and little else. Direct sale is only the mechanism in which Apple grabs [what little] sales that will happen for themselves. Does nothing to prevent or attack the core problem(s) to include: 1) repeat buyers alone cannot save this ship and 2) diminishing marketshare will do more unrecoverable damage than Apple is giving credit for.
Specs of the iMac laughable? In what way? It'll have a 56k modem by
launch, at least two models of add-on USB floppy drives to choose from
(Newer Tech and Imation), and a some USB/ADB/serial/SCSI converter boxes for those who must have them until straight USB solutions become
available. Oh, and in case you haven't heard, the laughable 233Mhz G3
chip in the iMac kicks 400Mhz Pentium II butt. The MacTV was a loser
when it was announced, and I knew it to be so at the time. The iMac is
the polar opposite of that. The iMac reportedly has 70,000 advance
orders in the pipe at CompUSA. It's primed to be a great success. <-- I will not spend much time to defend my opinion here...that would take some time. But I've called more than my share of successes and failures, and I will watch this model with disdain. One hint - it may seem grossly elementary to you - but I simply look at whether I would bring one home...and I can bring home anything Apple ever made as it passes through my inventory...and I have to say I see no reason to ever bring this one home. Apple could have had a blockbuster...by taking the PPC 5400/5500 all-in--one series and bring them to the $995 price point...now *that* would have been the hot one. The all-in-one G3 would have held their teens price point to avert cannabilization by this $995 machine...instead Apple wants to reinvent the wheel with a very strange-looking machine at a known-to-be non-competitive price point. Sorry - I don't buy it (pardon the pun). Also, can we assume 70,000 "advance orders" might just be the initial order for CompUSA to fill their shelves ? I wouldn't be surprised if this is the real truth...and you are simply mis-interpreting that these are advance orders from consumers. Come on - do you seriously want me to believe Joe "I want it yesterday" Consumer went down to their nearby CompUSA and said..."save me an iMac when theys hip in August...here is my deposit". Spare us. How many stores is CompUSA up to now ? Divide 70,000 by that number and you have maybe a snapshot of CompUSA's initial stockage. Not much more. BTW - Apple apparenly has acquiesced on the 33.6 modem issue..now we hear it's up to the 56K where it should be. Guess they can see how this pre-announcement is received and modify this weird model until actual release...that's a MSFT strategy known all-too-well.
You make some valid points, like the eMate and Newton, but rumors hint
to an eMate replacement in the works with some Newton capabilities.
We'll have to see what happens. But most of your post is mired in a
self-serving rant, IMHO. <-- You miss the point here also...the damage to Apple's credibility is in place...vertical markets who relied on the Newton and schools with eMates will think twice about buying from this company again. That's my simple prediction and no, I can't at this point objectively defend it by fact. Once again you assert I'm being self serving - good news is we've done well by Apple, and until yesterday, I was still staunchly pro-MAC (NOTE - BEING PRO-MAC DOES *NOT* MEAN BEING PRO-APPLE)...now I've reconsidered my position. If self-serving means defending one's CPU preference and career choice, then what's wrong with that. You do the same when you defend your STOCK choice and want it to go up, or down, as your investment is directed. Don't try to make it be a negative thing Roy.
You of course remember the old adage..."what's good for GM is good for America". When Apple pulled the plug on retail store chains, people yawned. When Apple pulled the plug on clones, Mac lovers didn't like it too much...were somewhat vocal about it...realized it would impact their price/performance offering in the future...had some definite opinion...but overall realized it too was a business decision.
NOW Apple pulls the plug on the reseller who impacts real people, who is asked literally every single day "what computer should I buy" and can truly impact this buying choice...in many many cases...the only Apple advocate in a given rural town making a living by that brand. I believe you'll find this BLACK FRIDAY action to be received quite differently than those other "only doing business" decisions...with less apathy and more empathy by the Mac owner in the US.
No - Joe Consumer won't rise up to do battle with Apple about this loss...I'm not this naive...but they will go to the yellow pages next year...look for the Apple logo ad...and not see it when they saw it in the past, I think it will dawn on them that Apple is truly an island unto themself...and I am personally certain this will impact Apple long-term viability.
Heck - I'ld love to buy a Lexus...but nearest dealer is 125 miles away from me...that, alone, kills the viability of the Lexus for me. Period. Consider Jackson, MS...city of 450,000 pop...corporate home of WorldCom...has one tiny VAR as the only authorized reseller (according to Apple's own web site)...think Apple has much presence in this town ? NOT. That's just the most obscene example I've discovered over the years of lack of Apple representation in a decent-sized town. Now this will worsen quickly.
Pardon me - I've come to not believe too much in Apple's data. When Apple defends their decision with numbers that indicate the VAR sales are not that great...hhmmm...it fits their objective doesn't it ?
My whole perspective may be naive...probably so.
Don't have time to spell check this...and I am horrendous about typos. Sorry. |
