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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (5116)5/23/1998 12:30:00 PM
From: Boca_PETE  Read Replies (1) of 42834
 
Mr. GJ: RE: <Your Survey >

Count me as " Fully invested-think there is a great deal more or more upside to go".

IMHO, falling demand from Asia and cheep imports from Asia will keep U.S. GDP growth, inflation and interest rates low. I expect the tech revolution to continue for the forseeable future, especially in areas and countries hit by recession conditions - tech gadgets are a way to lower cost and increase margins in a world where you can't raise prices and where revenues are falling due to lower demand. Growth in M3 money supply will continue to provide just the right amount of fuel to the U.S. economy, however I expect slower growth and FALLING interest rates due to lowering inflation expectations over the next few years. I expect unemployment to remain low and gradually draft lower. While I expect some REAL wage gains, my belief is that they will continue to be more than offset by productivity gains for the next few years at a minimum. For all of these reasons, count me as bullish, but NOT complacent.

However, the impact of any massive failures in Japan's banking system IS a worry. So is the possibility of a competitive currency devaluation by China and Hong Kong. High levels of bullishness among investment advisors (over 80%) would really put a scare in me. So would a FED tightenning of more than .25%. I remain concerned that the greatest risk in this environment is a PROFITS RECESSION and all that implies for stock price levels.

P
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