To All: The Law of Unintended Consequences = accelerated Win98 Sales
Win 98 Already Flying Off the Shelves
by Brian McWilliams, PC World News Radio
May 22, 1998
On Thursday Microsoft filed motions in both the state and federal antitrust cases asking for a delay of at least seven months.
The company also announced that advance orders for Windows 98 are running ahead of expectations despite--or perhaps
because of--the looming court injunction.
News Radio confirmed Microsoft's statement with Channel Marketing, a research firm that tracks computer software sales
through retail, mail order, and direct sales. While businesses are unlikely to rush to upgrade to Windows 98, Channel Marketing
president David Goldstein says there's a strong pent-up demand from home and small-office users.
According to Goldstein, "We're forecasting there will be more [copies of] Windows 98 sold in the first six months than there
was in the first six months of the launch of Windows 95. When we look at the penetration of [PCs in] small businesses and
home consumers, it's ... going to surprise a lot of people."
Disputing that prediction is Kim Brown, of market research firm Dataquest. He says Windows 98 upgrades will come nowhere
near the numbers garnered by Windows 95. He adds that interest in Windows 98 is limited largely to computer hobbyists. Still,
Brown concedes that a lot of Windows 98 upgrades will be loaded onto new computers--up to 30 million copies by September.
Even if Microsoft's motion for a delay is denied, the rapid adoption of Windows 98 could make it difficult for the courts to order
the company to pull it off the market and make changes requested by the Department of Justice.
Brown of Dataquest points out that the Windows 98 final code was shipped to major manufacturers on Monday and is already
being loaded on new computers. As far as he's concerned, the horse is already out of the barn.
"It's not Microsoft any more. [Microsoft] already shipped it to Compaq and Dell and everyone else," says Brown. "[The OEMs]
are already going through their qualification processes, building it into their information systems [for] manufacturing. 98 is
baked."
Goldstein of Channel Marketing also doubts that the judge would order a halt to Windows 98 at this stage. And he wonders
what the Justice Department was thinking by asking the court to order changes to the operating system.
Says Goldstein: "The Justice Department represents the people of the United States of America, and I'd like to know how the
people of the United States of America are going to be damaged by this. The government has done a very poor job of explaining
that to the individual citizen of this country. I don't understand why they're about to embark on a billion-dollar-over-X-years
of my tax dollars to prevent me from getting a product that, by the time they resolve this, won't even exist."
Gary Reback of Silicon Valley law firm Wilson, Sonsini, agrees that the Justice Department has done a terrible job of presenting
its case to the public. But he says anyone who takes a minute to read the government's complaint (see link to right) will be
alarmed at the picture painted by Microsoft's internal documents.
"I represent a lot of businesses," Reback says. "They don't behave [the way that] these documents seem to reflect [how
Microsoft behaves]. The single greatest value ... in the government filing [the suit] is so people can see what Microsoft is all
about.
He adds, "If businesses were informed fully of how Microsoft does business, there would be a lot fewer businesses willing to
deal with [Microsoft]. And that might be a far more effective remedy long term than anything the government can provide."
Microsoft spokesperson Mark Murray, however, says the government pulled quotes out of context to support its "conspiracy
theory."
"What the government did was basically trial by snippet in the court of public opinion," says Murray. "They had 1 million pages
of our documents, and they pulled out little five- and ten-word snippets to try to poison the public environment against
Microsoft." |
