bdog, it's a good time to sell stock primarily because Ramsey went on vaction--all that Japanese meltdown stuff is just far too sophisticated. OTOH .. . .
Wall Street Week last night had the fixed income guy from Loomis on. As you might suspect of a lifelong bond trader/investor working for one of the Street's oldest names, he was not exactly a gun slinger. Very conservative dude, quite intelligent and well spoken. This guy is predicting long term bond rates of 5% and has moved big Loomis mutual fund dollars from the equity to the debt side to play the scenario.
When asked if 5% money wouldn't be incredibly bullish for the stock market, he said absolutely. But, he felt the risk/reward ratio favored bonds since stocks were high, and the Asian 'thing' was a tad troubling just now. Then the bomb. Japan holds 40% of Indonesia's debt--yikes!
For the life of me I cannot see how Asia could have any kind of a soft landing. There are simply too many major negatives. I agree with Gregg (and of course others)that the education/work ethic/ business culture of these incredible folks will ultimately prevail, but damn is there going to be hell to pay before the dust settles. The depth of the crappola may be perhaps nowhere better seen than by Suharto's departure. How bad must it be for that guy to take a powder at a total cost of a "mere" 500 or so fatalities? For historical perspective, consider that when he came to power some 32/33 years ago, estimated fatalities to the ethnic Chinese population alone were in the 500,000 range. Methinks this means deep cah-cah for sure.
On a lighter note, could Mexico have come along at a better time? Are we fortunate as all get out that Europe's economies are picking up steam, ditto most of Latin America?
Finally, nice to visit here again with such nice folks. You guys want ugly? Check out the LOR thread on Motley. Yecch! Surfer Mike |
