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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)
ASND 207.68-0.7%10:26 AM EST

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To: djane who wrote (47459)5/24/1998 1:00:00 AM
From: djane  Read Replies (2) of 61433
 
Yahoo thread discussion about LU/ASND price

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lc
bucky89
May 21 1998
2:47PM EDT

Hi Len,

You wrote:

>>Do you really see 75-80?I know because of your past financial experience that
you realize 75 is 15
billion .I assume(dangerous word) that you feel that LU is paying a big premium for
the account base,backorders,stable
personnel and technology.Have i missed something or is it that Mory won't sell
without the big extra premium?<<

Is ASND worth $15B? Probably not today, but perhaps in a few years. Is LU worth
$95B? Definitely not, especially considering they have no established presence in
datacom. Is a combined ASND/LU worth $110B? Well, quite possibly...

LU's current stock price is really whacked out. With a market cap of $95B, they're
worth more than HP ($65B). That's pretty outrageous when you think their primary
products are voice TDM switching products, which will be obsolete in five years.

IMHO, LU will not be able to maintain their current stock price without Ascend. I'm
really serious about this. Just about every networking industry analyst acknowledges
voice switches will be eventually replaced by data switches in the coming era of
convergence. When this happens, LU will be a lone battleship in an era of cruise
missiles, unless they have acquired a major datacom equipment provider.

LU will do best to use their whacked-out stock price to pay a whacked-out sum of
money for the best datacom equipment maker available. Outside of Cisco, I think
that clearly is Ascend. I'm convinced it's only a matter of time before this happens.

bucky89


ASND: Quote | Profile | Research
This Is a Reply to: Msg 15398 by lc
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