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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 249.89+3.1%3:59 PM EST
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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (19649)5/24/1998 8:01:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (3) of 70976
 
Jacob: Re:" I believe that sometime in 1998 or 1999, we will see a 20-30% correction in the
S&P 500, caused by a slow-down in earnings and/or wage inflation causing a series of
Fed hikes. I don't know when, but I don't see any way to avoid one or the other. That
kind of correction pulls everything down. Therefore, I'm positioning myself to lose the
least money when the S&P hits 800. I'm hoping that INTC's resistance line at 70, which
has held through a steady onslaught of bad news for the last 12 months, will hold. The
worst downside I see is 60, which would be only a 20% decline from my 72 entry point
(next week I'll get that price)."

With a 20% - 30% decline in the markets that you are projecting, what you are forecasting in essence is a bear market and not a correction. I wonder what kind of duration you are forecasting as well for this "correction?" Will it be like 1973 and 1974? Sounds like it. If I were forecasting a bear market of that magnitude and duration, the last thing I would be doing is shopping for any stock. I would be selling.

Well, I see my AMAT thread contrary indicator is at work. AMAT's cc forecast for the future has obviously caused some impatient investors to bail and seek cover. The thread is downright bearish.

I think that it is interesting to note that AMAT has bought back its stock recently at an average price at about $30.15. I will keep that in mind when I add to my position in the coming weeks.
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