Manugistics, Inc. (MANU) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Manugistics, Inc. (MANU)

MANU 17.34

+2.1%

Feb 6 9:30 AM EST

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To: Big Sky who wrote (639)	5/24/1998 10:35:00 AM
From: Bobo	Read Replies (1) of 1670

Steve, I found your post interesting regarding the DCB and wanted to added a few of my own thoughts that are not as quantitative as yours: - It is helpful to distinguish b/t a short-term, technical DCB and a stock recovering because expectations bottomed and then improved. In the case of RATL, it bounced technically at first (DCB) but now has rebounded b/c expectations are on the rise. - Short-term DCB's are more typical in a market with positive sentiment than in a market with the current poor sentiment. This changes awful fast (as sentiment was great two weeks ago). - My expectations for a company like MANU are that it may realize a short-term DCB but will fade after that since current investors use the opportunity to erase the investment from their memory and analysts are not comfortable in seeing the 12 - 24 mo horizon with positive expectations. I guess mo-mo investors would say that bad stocks get worse before they get better. At the first sign that the company will stabilize, the stock firms up (a). If things improve enough over the next quarter or two (as mgt says they will), investors really see the whole event as "temporary" and bid the stock up (b). It things get worse (let's say thing are worst than mgt communicates), the stocks sees another downleg (c). Good examples of (a) is ORCL over the last 6 mo's, (b) Ascend over the last 9 months and (c) 3com over the last two qtrs. - Looking at these factors with a bias towards long-term investments, I see MANU price as a decent entry point (a 25% position) but expect better prices to arrive in the next few weeks (given that market sentiment looks to be trending down). I would see the low 20's as awful attractive. Just a few thoughts. Bobo

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