Justa: re:"Will it be like 1973 and 1974?"
I'm not arrogant enough to think I can tell exactly when the next recession and bear market will happen, or how long it will last. But I don't believe in "New Ages", and I don't believe "everything's different now, the business cycle is dead". Yes, we are seriously overdue for a 1973-type recession. It's been 25 years since all the fat (KO) and silliness (YHOO) were wrung out of the market (1990 was too short and shallow to do it). Just like Japan in the 1980s, everyone is ignoring valuation indicators and expecting liquidity to propel stocks up forever. House of cards. I've been steadily selling stocks I thought were overvalued, and am now in 45% cash. I started shorting, for the first time, this year. But I believe in the discipline of remaining 100% in the market at all times, as the only possible way to fully benefit from the upturns. That's why I'll be buying INTC soon. I bailed and sought cover (sold my AMAT) at 37.5. If I was still holding, I would not sell at 33, but wait till the stock next approaches its 38-40 resistance level. You may get another chance or two, before the stock goes to 13 (VVBG). If I was still holding INTC, I'd continue holding at these levels. And when I buy INTC at 72, I'm quite prepared to see 65 or 60 or whatever, and continue holding, because I'll see 200 eventually. Yes, the thread, and the analyst community, are beginning to get impatient with AMAT. For many months, every time the stock hits 39, we have numerous posts crowing "new all-time highs next month!" Hasn't happened, and won't (this year).
re: "The thread is downright bearish": No, the thread is solidly bullish. Everyone, even me and BB and teri and jtechkid, are long-term bulls on AMAT. We just recognise the cyclical nature of the industry, and are looking for a better entry price.
Could you post the site where you follow AMAT stock buybacks? That's very interesting. By "recently", you must mean last January, since that was the last time we saw 30 or below. I would assume they know better than anyone on this thread, including me, when the stock is undervalued.
Thanks for the response. |
